Market Insights | Winter 2025 | Dallas-Ft. Worth
January 2025
Average
Rent
Average
Occupancy
12 Mo Sales Volume
YoY Rent
Change
The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is home to over 8.4 million people, is the fourth most populous metro area in the nation, and serves as the economic and cultural hub of North Central Texas. The city of Dallas is the 9th most populous city in the nation with a 2023 estimated population of 1,302,868 residents, and the city of Fort Worth had the second largest increase in population in the U.S. from 2022 to 2023, adding 21,365 residents. As of 2023, Fort Worth is the 12th largest city in the United States, with a population of 978,468, nearly on par with Austin’s 979,882 population.
Frisco/Prosper and Allen/McKinney accounted for a third of market demand, driven by population gains in Collin and Denton counties. The market delivered 41,000 units over the year, translating to 4.3% of inventory. Institutional players continue to target stable submarkets with corporate presence and population growth. With tapering construction starts, the market is poised for tighter vacancies and rent recovery by 2025-2026.
Employment
Dallas-Fort Worth remains a national leader in job creation, adding 410,000 jobs since February 2020, despite a recent slowdown in higher-paying office-related segments. The region’s economic resilience supports multifamily demand, particularly as elevated interest rates hinder homeownership affordability, keeping more households in the rental market.
Strong job gains continue to underpin multifamily demand, particularly in suburban growth areas. The current population of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Market is 8,411,266 as of the July 2024 PopStats estimate. PopStat’s Trend models indicate a 5 year population change of 6.1%, resulting in a Population of 8,922,102 by July 2029. Tight inventory and high interest rates in the single-family market drive rental retention. Slower employment growth in office-using sectors poses near-term risks.
| % ∆ from Nov 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Metro Area Employment (Thousands) | Nov 2024 | DFW | National |
| Total Nonfarm | 4367.9 | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Mining, Logging, and Construction | 258.6 | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Manufacturing | 314.8 | 1.4% | -0.5% |
| Trade, Transportation, and Utilities | 932.6 | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Information | 93.1 | 2.0% | -0.4% |
| Financial Activities | 383.9 | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Professional and Business Services | 789.1 | -0.4% | 0.4% |
| Education and Health Services | 527.4 | 2.7% | 3.7% |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 429.9 | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| Other Services | 142 | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Government | 496.5 | 2.1% | 2.1% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rental Market
Rent growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth market has contracted by -1.5% year-over-year due to significant supply additions. The decline is more pronounced in high-end properties, while Class-B rents also fell for the first time since 2010. Approximately 40% of properties now offer concessions, the highest since 2020.
Despite rising demand, vacancy rates remain elevated at 11.2%, driven by an oversupply of new units. Higher-quality Class-A properties record vacancies of 11.9%, slightly above their pre-pandemic average. However, stabilized vacancy in growth submarkets like Frisco and Allen/McKinney hovers around 6%.
Rent growth is expected to rebound to 2% annually by 2025 as supply pressures ease. Population growth remains a critical factor in sustaining long-term demand.
Average Monthly
Mortgage Payment
Average Monthly
Rent
Source: CoStar
Average Rent / Vacancy
Asking Rent / Bedroom
Multifamily Construction
Construction activity is tapering in the Dallas-Fort Worth market, with 36,000 units currently under construction, down from a peak of 64,000. Deliveries over the past year totaled 41,000 units, accounting for 4.3% of inventory. Northern suburbs like Frisco/Prosper continue to dominate construction activity, reflecting demographic trends.
New starts have declined sharply due to rising construction costs and financing hurdles. Frisco/Prosper leads in new developments, tracing strong population and economic growth. Urban core projects like "The Sinclair" highlight growing interest in residential conversions. Tapering construction is expected to stabilize vacancy and rent growth dynamics.
12 Mo.
Delivered Units
12 Mo.
Absorption Units
2025 Expected
Completions
Completions / Net Absorption
*Inventory Growth Forecast
Units by Submarket Delivering in 2024
Units Under
Construction
Properties
Under Construction
Percentage of
Inventory
| Submarket | Units Under Construction | % of Total UC | Units UC Delivering in Next 4 Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allen / McKinney | 2,579 | 7.7% | 2,719 |
| Arlington | 1,136 | 1.9% | 933 |
| Denton | 2,160 | 8.3% | 2,590 |
| Downtown Dallas | 615 | 6.4% | 289 |
| Downtown Fort Worth | 0 | 0.0% | 302 |
| East Dallas | 1,495 | 2.3% | 1,738 |
| East Fort Worth | 666 | 6.0% | 0 |
| Ellisi County | 454 | 5.2% | 1,686 |
| Far North Dallas | 933 | 2.0% | 1,100 |
| Farmers Branch / Carrollton | 1,398 | 3.0% | 1,435 |
| Frisco / Prosper | 5,824 | 14.9% | 3,964 |
| Garland / Rowlett | 1,224 | 4.3% | 2,691 |
| Grand Prairie | 0 | 0.0% | 284 |
| Grapevine | 207 | 2.1% | 0 |
| Hood County | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hurst / Euless / Bedford | 0 | 0.0% | 56 |
| Irving | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Johnson County | 118 | 1.8% | 692 |
| Las Colinas | 150 | 0.4% | 919 |
| Lewsville / Flouwer Mound | 1,001 | 3.2% | 1,412 |
| Mesquite | 600 | 2.0% | 803 |
| North Dallas | 213 | 2.7% | 297 |
| North Fort Worth | 1,439 | 6.2% | 1,112 |
| North Richland Hills | 343 | 2.2% | 423 |
| Northeast Outlying | 416 | 9.9% | 152 |
| Northwest Dallas | 370 | 1.4% | 743 |
| Northwest Fort Worth | 2,220 | 8.9% | 3,013 |
| Oak Cliff | 268 | 1.3% | 971 |
| Parker County | 0 | 0.0% | 616 |
| Plano | 663 | 1.4% | 714 |
| Richardson | 0 | 0.0% | 1,201 |
| Rockwall / Wylie | 1,576 | 14.0% | 2,365 |
| South Dallas County | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Southeast Dallas | 1,022 | 5.7% | 650 |
| Southeast Fort Worth | 2,256 | 17.4% | 157 |
| Southeast Outlaying | 180 | 8.4% | 300 |
| Southwest Fort Worth | 2,591 | 6.7% | 1,736 |
| Uptown / Park Cities | 2,102 | 7.1% | 345 |
| West Dallas | 150 | 1.7% | 1,665 |
| Wise County | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Multifamily Sales
Multifamily deal activity in Dallas-Fort Worth remains subdued, with $7.5 billion in sales over the past year. The average market cap rate for Class-A assets ranges from 4.5% to 5%+, with transaction volumes showing signs of recovery in Q3 2024.
Most investors have called 2024 the bottom of the market for total transactions and pricing. Blackstone specifically called out Q1 of 2024 as the bottom. GREA has seen transaction volume increase quarter over quarter in 2024 and expects that momentum to continue into 2025 as financing conditions improve, loans that were extended in the prior two years come due, and sellers come to grips with the "new normal" for cap rates and interest rates.
Sales Volume
Past 12 Mo.
Sales Volume
YoY Change
Avg. Sold Price / Unit
Avg. Cap Rate
Average Sales PPU / Cap Rate
Interest rate volatility and the high cost of debt caused values to soften and capitalization rates to increase.
Team
Todd Franks
Chairman / Founding Partner
Mark Allen
Executive Managing Director
Sean Reynolds
Senior Managing Director
Chibuzor Nnaji
Senior Managing Director
Byron Griffith
Senior Managing Director
Jeff Burgfechtel
Senior Managing Director
Sean Scott
Managing Director
Lee Robinson
Senior Managing Director
Esther Cho
Managing Director
Nicholas Brown
Managing Director
Jared Rice
Managing Director
Angel Flores
Director
Ryan Quaid
Associate
Craig Jasso
Associate