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Market Insights | Summer 2024 | Miami Metro

Summer 2024

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$2,346

Average
Rent

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94%

Average
Occupancy

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$1B

YTD Sales
Volume

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+2%

YoY Rent
Change

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+0%

Occupancy
Change

August 2, 2024

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area is the cultural, economic, and financial center of South Florida and is one of the largest urban areas in the country. Greater Miami accounts for over 90% of the economic activity in the region and contains the highest concentration of international banks in the nation. Miami's favorable pro-business environment has attracted large companies in recent years, and its primary economic drivers are in the industries of construction, trade, transportation, and utilities, retail trade, tourism, education and health care, and professional and business services. 830 Brickwell, downtown Miami's tallest office tower, made its debut in the financial district in 2023. The $235-million building is the first new highrise in the district in over 10 years. 97% of the office space was leased before the opening, and tenants include Citadel Group, Kirkland and Ellis, Rothschild & Co., and Microsoft.

The tourism industry has made great strides in job recovery since the height of the pandemic and 2023 was a historic year for the industry. PortMiami, known as the” Cruise Capital of the World,” is the largest passenger port in the world and is recognized as a global gateway. The port welcomed a record 7,299,294 cruise passengers in 2023, a 6.7% increase from its previous pre-pandemic record set in 2019. Eight new ships are debuting in 2024 including Royal Caribbean Group’s Icon of the Seas, the largest cruise ship in the world. Port Miami has an annual economic impact of over $43 billion on the region and supports a total of roughly 334,000 jobs.


Employment

"The reduction of Florida’s commercial lease sales tax rate, also known as the Business Rent Tax, from 4.5% to 2.0%, starting June 1, will provide Florida employers with at least an estimated $1 billion in tax relief,  making it easier for existing business to succeed and attracting new businesses. A stronger economy and the zero tax on state income will continue to sustain the migration of people from states with high tax burden and housing costs such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles." - MIAMI REALTORS, Southest Florida 2024-2025 Housing Outlook

As of June 2024, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) saw a significant increase of 72,700 nonfarm positions, with a job growth rate of 2.5%, surpassing the national rate of 1.5%. The Miami-Miami Beach-Kendal division, which comprises about 45% of the MSA's employment, added 38,000 jobs. The Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach division, accounting for 31% of the employment, gained 21,100 jobs, while the West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach division, representing 25% of the MSA, saw an increase of 13,600 positions.

% ∆ from June 2023
Metro Area Employment (Thousands) June 2024MiamiNational
Total Non-farm2,946.42.5%1.5%
Construction162.17.1%2.8%
Manufacturing990.7%0.0%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities656.21.5%0.7%
Information54.5-2.5%-1.0%
Financial Activities217.40.2%0.3%
Professional and Business Services525.91.7%0.3%
Private Education and Health Services461.54.2%4.2%
Leisure and Hospitality347.83.4%1.7%
Other Services119.14.2%1.6%
Government3023.2%2.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Rental Market

Asking rent growth in the Miami metro area normalized to 2.2% at the beginning of Q3 2024, close to the historical average of 2.6% and outperforming the national average rent growth gain of 1.1%. Demand growth in the luxury asset class decelerated to 8%, below the five-year average of 14%. The softening of rent growth, increase in concessions, and lower occupancy levels can be attributed to the influx of new deliveries that will continue for the remainder of the year and into 2025. Still, demand for luxury properties remains high with 90% of demand growth over the past 10 years focused in the upper-tier market segment. This trend is expected to continue long-term.

Meanwhile, rent gains in the one-, two-, and three-star segments continue to outperform the four- and five-star properties, a pattern that began in the second half of 2022. As of Q3 2024, the average annual rent growth in the mid-tier segment was 2.7% compared to 1.8% in the four- and five-star segments. Properties with non-stabilized occupancy levels are expected to have occupancy rates under 91%, and low- to -mid-tier properties will remain above 95%, according to Costar. The overall average occupancy rate was 94.1% as of Q3 2024. By the end of 2024, non-stabilized vacancies are expected to increase to over 9%, and low- to -mid-tier vacancies will remain below 5%, according to Costar.

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$3,762

Average Monthly
Mortgage Payment

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$2,346

Average Monthly
Rent

Source: Zillow Mortgage Calculator based on median SP, 20% down, 6.187% interest rate. Includes taxes & PMI

Average Rent / Vacancy

  • Average Vacancy
  • Average Rent
  • 6.4
  • 7.5
  • 3.4
  • 4.8
  • 5.6
  • 5.9
  • 19 1838
  • 20 1853
  • 21 2129
  • 22 2268
  • 23 2309
  • 24 YTD 2346

Asking Rent / Bedroom

  • Miami MSA #aacff2
  • US #1c252c
  • Studio
    • 1820
    • 1548
  • 1 BR
    • 2010
    • 1537
  • 2 BR
    • 2590
    • 1793
  • 3 BR
    • 3090
    • 2206

Multifamily Construction

There are 24,616 units under construction in the Miami metro, representing nearly 14% of existing inventory. Construction starts began a dramatic slow-down last year to roughly 7,500 units, close to half the amount of the 15,400 units under construction in 2022. Even with the heaviest construction pipeline in the state, annual rent gains have outperformed other major Florida metro markets like Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, and Orlando. Approximately 40% of the new supply is concentrated in downtown Miami, and 90% of the new supply underway is in the four- and five-star segment. 

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8K

Multifamily Completions
Past 12 Months

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3K

Single Family
Permits

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7K

Multifamily Permits
(5+ Units)

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$657K

Median Single
Family Price

Completions / Net Absorption

  • Growth
  • #Units
  • 2.7
  • 3.8
  • 3.4
  • 2.1
  • 1.4
  • 0.9
  • 23 6757
  • 24 8782
  • 25 8361
  • 26 4937
  • 27 4573
  • 28 1381

Units by Submarket Delivering in 2024

Over 8,300 units are expected to be delivered by the end of 2024. In 2023, deliveries tallied to 6,700 units. 12-month absorption stands at 6,704 units through Q3 2024, inching ahead of the previous five-year absorption average of 6,600 units. The recent in-migration of high-income earners that are outpriced of the single-family market should aid in bolstering demand and keep occupancy rates above the national average in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. 

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24,616

Units Under
Construction

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7,541

Units UC Delivering
in the Next 4 Quarters

SubmarketUnits Under
Construction
% of Total UC12 Month Deliveries
Aventura1,33854.9%0
Coconut Grove461.8%402
Coral Gables1,40713.7%415
Downtown Miami11,76038.4%1,662
Hialeah / Miami Lakes1,5847.4%60
Homestead / South Dade1,54912.8%439
Kendall1,0016.2%0
Little Havana8024.8%599
Miami Gardens / Opa-Locka6463.1%1,240
Miami Springs / Doral1,8018.7%377
Mid-Beach17829.4%0
North Beach4276.0%6
North Miami Beach1,8269.5%966
Outlying Miami-Dade County1004.0%1,225
South Beach1512.2%150
Westchester / Tamiami00.0%0

Multifamily Sales

Miami remains a desirable multifamily investment market, active primarily with institutional buyers over the past 12 months. Sales volume over the past year totaled $1.2 billion, and the annual sales volume trend is adjusting closer to the 10-year annual average of $1.8 billion. After the unprecedented surge of multifamily traction activity throughout the nation in 2021 and 2022 that totaled $4 billion annually, the economic challenges of recent years have had a direct effect on multifamily fundamentals and transaction volume. Tightening lending standards, the rise of interest-driven capitalization rates, and escalated insurance costs contribute to the deceleration of transaction volume and price growth. Contracted price growth is forecasted to continue through the second half of 2024, in tandem with the anticipated reduction of interest rates and loosening of lending requirements within the next year.

$1B

YTD Transaction Volume

-52%

YoY Change

$309,884

Price Per Unit

-1%

Annual Price Change

Average Sales PPU / Cap Rate

  • Cap Rate
  • $/Unit
  • 5.3
  • 5.0
  • 4.4
  • 4.7
  • 5.3
  • 5.2
  • 19 230260
  • 20 252121
  • 21 317319
  • 22 323631
  • 23 296600
  • 24 YTD 309884

Miami remains a desirable multifamily investment market, active primarily with institutional buyers over the past 12 months. Sales volume over the past year totaled $1.2 billion, and the annual sales volume trend is adjusting closer to the 10-year annual average of $1.8 billion. After the unprecedented surge of multifamily traction activity throughout the nation in 2021 and 2022 that totaled $4 billion annually, the economic challenges of recent years have had a direct effect on multifamily fundamentals and transaction volume. Tightening lending standards, the rise of interest-driven capitalization rates, and escalated insurance costs contribute to the deceleration of transaction volume and price growth. Contracted price growth is forecasted to continue through the second half of 2024, in tandem with the anticipated reduction of interest rates and loosening of lending requirements within the next year.

Team

Ken Wellar

Ken Wellar

Founding Partner

Taylor Walsh

Managing Director

Mando de Armas

Jesus “Mando” de Armas

Associate Director

Max Wallace

Associate

George Johnson

George D. Johnson, Jr.

Managing Director, Debt & Equity

Joe Hanuscin

Joe Hanuscin

Director, Debt & Equity

Christopher Garzone

Christopher Garzone

Director, Debt & Equity